1. Strong Long-Term Position for Indian Markets
Christopher Wood from Jefferies states that despite elevated valuations, India continues to be a leading long-term investment story, supported by strong asset and wealth management sectors and market consolidation. He does raise a note of caution over U.S. market volatility, particularly from a potential AI bubbleThe Economic Times.
2. Sebi Tightening Block Deal Regulations
Sebi proposes raising the minimum order size for block deals from ₹10 crore to ₹25 crore, aiming to curb manipulation and improve transparency. The regulator is also planning to review the pricing bands for these deals. Public consultation is open until September 15, 2025The Times of India.
3. Market Edges Higher, Watch August 26 & 28
The Nifty50 closed the week with roughly a 1% gain—the second straight week of growth. Analysts urge vigilance around August 26 and 28, suggesting these could be pivot points for market reversals. Intraday outlook includes notable high-probability trading windows from August 25–29The Economic Times.
4. Positive RBI Sentiment; Nifty at Key Level
GST reform optimism and India’s S&P rating upgrade helped the Nifty and Sensex post gains, with the Nifty ending the week at 24,870.10 and the Sensex at 81,306.85. However, profit booking capped further gains toward the closeThe Economic Times.
5. Mixed Projections for Year-End Outlook
A Reuters poll forecasts modest gains for Indian markets by year-end, with Nifty expected to climb only 3.9% to reach 25,834. Foreign investor outflows ($13B YTD) and U.S. tariffs are pressuring sentiment, pushing back hopes of a new record until 2026Reuters.
6. GST Reforms Could Propel Markets Higher
Optimism is building around GST rationalization efforts—combined with better fiscal markers—that could lift Nifty to 28,000 by September 2026The Times of IndiaThe Economic Times.
7. Regulatory Push to Boost IPO Listings
Sebi wants to make it easier for large firms (₹5 trillion+ market cap) to list by lowering their required minimum IPO issue size to 2.5% of paid-up share capital (down from 5%). It’s also proposing extended timelines—up to 10 years—for meeting public shareholding norms. Deadline for feedback is September 8, 2025Reuters.
Analyst Picks: Stocks to Watch (Mint)
- Sumeet Bagadia (Choice Broking) recommends Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, and Sun Pharma as potential buys for the week ahead—though Nifty faces resistance at 25,200mint.
- In the sub-₹100 space, Bagadia suggests SJVN, Centrum Capital, and Munjal Auto Industries with targets in the ₹106–₹93 range and controlled stop lossesmint.
- Dharmesh Shah (ICICI Securities) sees value in Chalet Hotel—buying within ₹990–1,015, targeting ₹1,115, with a stop loss at ₹899. Nifty could rally toward 25,400 by Septembermint.
Global Cues: The Jackson Hole Effect
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole added fuel to rate-cut expectations:
- He cautiously opened the door to a possible September rate cut, unsettling nothing yet, but shifting trader sentiment. A soundbite summary: traders are now pricing in around a 90% chance of a cut, up from 75%The Economic TimesThe Economic TimesReuters.
- Wall Street rallied sharply—Dow surged ~800 points, and both S&P 500 and Nasdaq followed suitThe Economic TimesReuters.
- This global easing narrative has buoyed Indian investor sentiment, contributing to the intraday bounce in mid-late AugustThe Economic TimesThe Economic Times.
Summary: What to Watch This Week
| Theme | Details |
|---|---|
| Momentum | India markets showing resilience, but close tracking needed around Aug 26 & 28. |
| Regulatory | Changes in block deal and IPO norms could reshape large-cap behavior. |
| Macro Outlook | Fed signals and GST reforms offer near-term upside potential; U.S. tariffs and FPIs remain risks. |
| Recommendations | Key stock picks include M&M, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, SJVN, Centrum, Munjal Auto, and Chalet Hotel. |
| Strategic Layers | Long-term narrative remains positive; short-term trading will be influenced by global cues and policy triggers. |
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